From highways to mines, Scania is testing autonomous vehicles. What’s the state of the technology? What can be expected by 2030? And what will be the role of truck drivers in the future?
Across 36 countries, which together account for 70% of global GDP, 3.6 million truck driver positions are unfilled.
Underlying structural demographic trends are increasingly alarming, notably a widening gap between younger and older drivers.
Young drivers under 25 make up just 6.5% of the total driver workforce. In stark contrast, the share of truck drivers who are over 55 is 31.6%.
Over the next five years, 3.4 million truck drivers will retire in the countries studied – posing serious challenges for the transport industry.
What can be done?
We asked Peter Hafmar, Vice President and Head of Autonomous Solutions at IRU member Scania’s Autonomous Solutions Division.
What is the impact of driver shortage?
The shortage of drivers is one of the key challenges facing the global transport industry. It is directly impacting our customers and our own logistics.
It is projected to reach a tipping point within the next decade, according to IRU data, potentially causing significant delays in freight movement. This would have a cascading effect on time-sensitive industries, exposing them to operational risks, such as halting production lines due to the dependence on just-in-time delivery. Most businesses, especially cost sensitive ones like e-commerce, would be seriously affected by higher transport costs.
This was the case during the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted global supply chains, constrained businesses, led to empty shelves, and increased the cost of goods. We had difficulty delivering trucks to customers across Europe because the transport companies were short on drivers.
For our customers in the mining industry, where operations are often in remote locations, finding and retaining skilled staff such as truck drivers is one of the most common concerns cited. Cost levels are high and increasing. Frequent staff turnover is cited as a potential safety risk on mining roads. It is also dangerous to walk around trucks with heavy machinery nearby. Many customers have programmes in place for improving working conditions, providing training, and, where possible, automating operations.
Do you see regional differences?
Driver shortages vary by region, according to IRU data. However, it remains a widespread issue in most regions.
Within the TRATON Group, our parent company, we currently concentrate our efforts on developing on-road autonomy in the United States and Europe, where driver shortages are becoming increasingly prevalent.
How can technology help with driver shortage?
Technology can address driver shortages by implementing automated driving on major highways, where freight volumes are heavy and consistent, as well as in confined areas, such as mines. This approach can bridge the gaps emerging in the industry and enhance the stability of global supply chains.
Scania aims to drive the shift towards a sustainable transport system. Autonomous solutions can improve both energy efficiency and road safety.
Autonomous trucks will manage routine and repetitive routes, while human drivers will continue to operate alongside this technology. The technology is under development; therefore, human drivers will conduct most freight operations until full safety can be assured.
Even as the technology becomes fully stable, human drivers will remain essential for first- and last-mile driving, transporting hazardous materials, handling special load cargo, and navigating complex routes. Trucks will most likely be designed to accommodate both fully autonomous driving without a driver and, just like today, with a driver benefiting from several semi-autonomous functions, such as advanced driving assistant systems.
Technology will evolve, and in the distant future, autonomous trucks will be able to cover a larger share of freight flows. By then, numerous support jobs will have been created to sustain such operations and developments. Staff will be needed to ensure safety, run hub operations, provide remote support, contribute to development efforts, and more.
Where are we today with autonomous vehicles?
We released our autonomous mining truck last year in Australia and are looking to expand into other markets. Latin America would be a natural next step, where we see strong customer demand, favourable conditions for our solutions, and where we already have a strong presence.
As driverless applications in confined areas continue to grow, autonomous trucks are expected to operate on public roads without a safety driver on board in this decade, subject to factors such as legislation and market adoption.
Are you testing on highways?
We are currently testing level 4 autonomy on highways in Sweden and Germany and intend to begin commercial operations within the next couple of years.
With level 4 autonomy, vehicles can be completely driverless within the specific tasks and conditions for which they have been programmed. Any task outside of this predefined scope will continue to be carried out by drivers.
Over the next few years, we plan to expand into additional European countries and launch commercial pilot programmes where we see the most compelling use cases for autonomous driving.
Our focus is on markets and applications where autonomy can deliver the greatest value to our customers as the technology matures and becomes more widely available.
In Europe, demand is strongest in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, where we will continue testing and move to commercial deployments as soon as the technology and regulatory framework permit.
China is undergoing rapid development. We are working closely with our teams there to introduce new solutions to the market.
What about level 5?
Level 5 autonomy, where the system operates autonomously in all conditions, is still very far away.
What specific use cases are best suited for automation?
Confined area autonomy is already a reality in the mining sector. The solutions are being scaled together with our customers.
The other key use case we see is on-highway autonomy from terminal to terminal. Driving long hours on repetitive routes, standing in traffic jams and spending time away from home can be taxing for a human driver. This makes this use case particularly compelling for the industry.
How can IRU support the transition to autonomous vehicles?
The introduction of new technology begins with information sharing and education, which is precisely the focus of our work with IRU.
Together, we can ultimately create an environment for open dialogue, where concerns can be voiced, questions can be addressed, and stakeholders can prepare effectively for the changes ahead.
Our work with IRU underscores the importance of careful planning to maximise benefits, such as improved logistics efficiency and enhanced working conditions, within the transport industry.