This Intelligence Briefing gives transport professionals a data-grounded view of where European road freight is heading, combining the latest volume data (tonne-kilometres) with macroeconomic and regulatory drivers to forecast market evolution to 2031.

The analysis draws on the latest road freight data, macroeconomic projections, fleet registration statistics, and IRU’s driver shortage survey. IRU forecasts are based on measurable economic variables and should be read as directional guidance within the current context.

Why this Briefing stands out

• Built on operational volume (tkm), not market value: Most reports focus on revenue. This briefing uses tonne-kilometres — a direct measure of transport activity – making it actionable for capacity planning, fleet sizing and network decisions.
• Grounded in historical precedent: The briefing draws on lessons from the 1990 Gulf War, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2022 Ukraine energy shock to contextualise the current disruption and frame what recovery could look like.
• Institutional vantage point: Produced by IRU, the world road transport organisation, this analysis reflects a unique position between industry and governments, combining public data, regulatory expertise, and on-the-ground sector insight into a neutral, credible perspective.

Who is it for?

This briefing is designed for professionals who already understand the market, but need reliable, forward-looking data to act with confidence in an environment where energy shocks, trade tensions and regulatory changes are reshaping the rules.

• Transport operators & logistics providers: Plan capacity against realistic demand scenarios, benchmark your empty miles and payload utilisation against EU and country-level data, and anticipate where regulatory costs will hit hardest.
• Shippers, retailers & manufacturers: Anticipate transport cost trajectories, identify which corridors are tightening, and build procurement strategies that hold up under continued fuel price and tariff volatility.
• Service providers, consultants & financial institutions: Identify where freight demand is growing and where it is contracting, assess corridor-level risk exposure, and support investment decisions with credible, data-backed scenarios.
• Vehicle & equipment manufacturers Align production and sales strategies with realistic fleet renewal trends and the regulatory milestones shaping operator purchasing decisions towards 2030.

What is it for?

• Understand where freight demand is heading
  Combine historical crisis analysis, macroeconomic projections and IRU's interactive scenario modelling tool to frame what 2026 and 2027 could look like under different energy price and GDP growth assumptions.
• Make better long-term investment decisions
  Apply lessons from past energy and demand shocks to the current environment, giving investors and planners a framework for scenario-based decision-making grounded in structural market drivers.
• Improve operational efficiency
  Benchmark empty miles, average payload and fuel intensity against EU and country-level data, and identify where the largest optimisation gains remain available across your operations.
• Plan routes and modal strategies with confidence
  Identify which corridors are competitive and viable and which face headwinds under evolving conditions, and position your network around the freight flows most likely to hold.

Full 46-page briefing contents:

• Chap 1: Freight markets in times of energy and geopolitical shocks
• Chap 2: 2024 road freight volumes based on latest available data
• Chap 3: Road transport efficiency as a key lever