Speeches: Stefan Rommerskirchen, Head of Transport Section, Prognos Basel, Switzerland

7th IRU East-West Road Transport Conference Budapest, 15-16 May 2003 Budapest Congress Centre (BCC), Alkotas u. 63-67 - 1123 Budapest, Hungary

Stefan Rommerskirchen
Head of Transport Section, Prognos Basel, Switzerland

Introduction

With the EU Eastern enlargement Europe will shortly be taking a further step in a process that has been getting off the ground for a considerable time. European integration.

With many different sized, differently equipped, differently developed and differently organised countries, Central and Eastern Europe offer a wide range of nations that represent a great acquisition and also a great challenge for the new Europe. But, you must not forget: In principle Western Europe has this diversity as well.

To take a look at the future of transport in Europe, 17 Western European countries (15 current EU countries + Switzerland + Norway) and 5 Central and Eastern European countries (the 'first phase joining candidates', Estonia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovenia) were selected in the 'Prognos European Transport Report 2002'. The following analyses and forecasts are based on these countries.

Population and economic development as determining factors for increased demand for transport.

Populations have been increasing in a spectacular fashion all over the world but in Europe absolute changes will no longer be as great by 2015 as in the 90's. This applies to most countries in Western, Central and Eastern Europe (see fig. 1.1)

The strength and structure of the economy and the outlook on the outside world are very different in the 22 countries under investigation. There are still clear differences between East and West see fig. 1.2).

Passenger transport prospects in 2015

Car ownership (cars/1000 inhabitants) as an important command variable in the development of passenger transport as is the modal split share of motorised private transport has (also) increased greatly in the 90's (1991 - 2000). In the EU from 410 - 482, in the five MOE countries examined from 181 - 276 cars per 1000 inhabitants. These growth trends will not alter significantly in the next 15 years (see fig. 2.1), even if the current trend is possibly not shown as growing as strongly as assumed in our short term forecasts.

We are assuming that from 2000 - 2015 the number of cars in the EU will increase once more by 35 million vehicles (just under 20%), in the 5 MOE countries examined by 9.5 million cars or 55%! Journeys will increase accordingly and the road networks will be stretched even more.

Passenger transport journeys will increase in the EU by a further 20% between 2000 and 2015 (see fig. 2.2), in the MOE countries even by 55% (see fig. 2.3) - i.e. in line with the number of cars.

The proportion of road passenger transport - with cars and regular buses and coaches - will reduce slightly in the EU. Local and long distance trains will increase their share from 7.9% (2000) to 8.2% (2015) but will, therefore not reach the market share of bus transport (8.8%) even by 2015 (see fig. 2.2).

In the MOE countries (see fig. 2.3) the train's loss of market share in the 90's (1992: 21.5%; 2000: 13.1%) will slow down and from 2010 (11.9%) until 2015 may even be reversed (12.3%). But here too buses have a higher market share so that even in the MOE countries the majority of passenger transport journeys will be by road.

Goods traffic prospects in 2015

Economic growth without an increase in goods traffic is only possible if the two trends cease to be linked. The 'gradual' separation of an increase in traffic and economic growth represents a 'basic strategy' in the European Commission white paper entitled 'European transport policy until 2010: setting points for the future' (see White paper, Guidelines/ Section IV).

The separation hoped for by the transport policy will mean lower growth in traffic compared with economic development. This happened in the 90's in the 5 MOE countries of course, but not in the EU countries (see fig. 3.1). Compared with 1991, by 2000 the amount of goods transport increased in the EU by 9%. In the 5 MOE countries, it decreased by 18%.

The comparison of the amount of transport at an absolute level shows (see fig. 3.2) that national economies in the 5 MOE countries (on average) are much more transport intensive than in the EU countries (on average). As with the level of car ownership, there are considerable differences in the individual countries. Our forecasts assume that by 2015 transport levels in the EU will hardly increase any more (this is not separation but linking!), but in the 5 MOE countries will reduce still further.

The combination of economic growth and transport intensity trends means, for the 15 EU countries, a total modal growth in goods traffic between 2000 and 2015 of a good 40% (see fig. 3.3), in the 5 MOE countries (see fig. 3.4) - as a consequence of their economic restructuring process and decreasing amount of transport - on the other hand 'only' by just under 40% (with a comparably higher economic growth there).

In the EU market shares of goods haulage companies will largely stabilise. But in addition viable market packages are required for international rail goods transport which EU train packages will make possible and put into effect.

In MOE countries the (expected) change in the economic structure will, in future, be accompanied by a road orientated modal split development along Western lines. The EU enlargement will further increase the exchange of goods within the future internal market. As with the 'completion of the EU internal market', the extent to which roads must bear the main burden of this development depends strongly upon how offers in international rail goods transport perform.

Summary

All mega trends and forecasts point the way to further growth in passenger transport and strong future growth in goods transport in all parts of Europe.

But the desired change processes and merging the structures that have grown up in different ways over decades need time and patience - in the East and in the West.

As far as passenger transport is concerned, roads throughout Europe bear the brunt of traffic in the country even today.

The market shares of goods haulage companies will stabilise in Western Europe. In Eastern Europe the desired change in economic structure will be linked with a road orientated modal split development along Western lines.

EU enlargement will increase economic links, and thus also goods transport, between Eastern and Western Europe.

Traffic between the North and the South of the EU will be affected to a comparatively minor extent by the EU Eastern enlargement. The exchange of goods between East and West will produce mainly additional traffic. This will have a particularly great effect on western neighbours of the joining countries.

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