Speeches: Arthur Gleijm, Director, NEA Research Institute, Netherlands

7th IRU East-West Road Transport Conference Budapest, 15-16 May 2003 Budapest Congress Centre (BCC), Alkotas u. 63-67 - 1123 Budapest, Hungary

The development of freight transport in Europe, in particular Central Europe

Arthur Gleijm
Director, NEA Research Institute, Netherlands

Between now and 2015 international freight transport in Europe will grow enormously. Most important cause is the economy growing further. Also trade will grow rapidly because of continuing globalization (intercontinental freight flows) and the process of integration in Europe will have its impact.

There are also trends that, given the grow of the economy, might slow down freight transport in terms of ton-kilometers;

• the development of the service-oriented economy
• the increase of the value-weight relation of half and finished products
• specific measures to decouple the grow of the economy and the grow of transport flows

Until the year 2015 trade and transport will grow considerably in Central Europe. In 1996 it was forecasted that domestic transport would grow by 40-70%, export by 90-150% and import by 80-140% dependant on the different scenario's.

The share of road transport will grow. In tons, domestic transport will grow by 85-93%, export from 29-43% and import from 18-37%, dependant on the different scenario's.

Grow will be at the cost of rail transport. Dependant on the scenario's, domestic transport by rail will develop between a decrease to 70% of its present level and a small growth. The import and export flows by rail will grow by about 50%, which is lower than the growth of trade.

The main causes of the modal-split changes are threefold;

• a stronger growth than average of sectors where the market share of road transport is already high, such as finished products
• harmonization of transport markets throughout Europe, leading to higher shares of road transport on almost all relations and all commodity groups
• the further development of transport infrastructure, which will be in favour of the development of road transport

Source; NEA Traffic Forecast on the Ten Pan-European Transport Corridors of Helsinki, 1999

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