Address by Jacques Attali

Address by  Jacques Attali Brussels, 18 May 2000

You have asked a French intellectual and man of action to join in your reflection about the future of your industry. May I say that I am extremely pleased to be here and happy to share my thoughts with you, which are indeed essentially focused on the future.

Your profession is a very specific one which, in my opinion, is likely to be profoundly affected by new technologies. These might be seen as a threat to your industry, however I feel that, provided that you are able to make the most of the opportunities which new technologies are providing, you will enter a world of huge potential more than ever suited to the specific nature of your business and to the cultural essence of the tasks which you accomplish.

The profession of road transport operator is probably one of the least loved and simultaneously most vital jobs. I cannot avoid recalling the image most of you have with the general public, as a source of congestion, social exploitation, pollution, accidents, road wear and other ills; but at the same time, everyone realises that our societies could not function without the professions which you represent, which just goes to prove that public figures are not the only people to feel the pinch of ingratitude: you too are often victims to it.

To my mind, the future of your industry is part of a huge change in society, which will increasingly turn, with extreme consequences, towards increased mobility, or even what I would call "nomadism". As always, for the more sedentary, mobile persons or nomads are both a source of fascination and rejection. Nomads are envied for they can travel, but they are also feared for their travels may bring along new and dangerous things.

Historically, nomadic societies long dominated sedentary ones. One may say that nomadic societies represent the hunters and sedentary societies the farmers, that nomadic societies were essentially masculine while sedentary ones were feminine. Only with the development of agriculture did sedentary people take over power from nomadic societies, however nomads remained the means of communication between sedentary people, bearing news, goods, as well as war and epidemics. Indeed, nomadism, mobility - in short, transport - were always indispensable for the development of capitalism. There could be no economic development without transport.

May I recall that the development of modern capitalism and all its major leaps forward were always linked to the introduction of new communication networks - roads in the Roman Empire, the postal system in the 16^th century, the railways in the 19^th century - or to a major innovation in the field of transport, which sets the pace of globalisation and economic growth. From the advent of stirrups, which came to Europe from China at the turn of the first millennium, marking the beginning of transport development, to the Etambot rudder which transformed shipping in the 13^th century, to the steam engine, and finally, to what explains your presence here, the combustion engine in the early 20^th century, each stage of economic development, each progress in world growth has always been linked to progress in the field of transport and, conversely, each time mobility was put into question, either through a destruction of networks or distrust of carriers or nomads, economic growth has stalled. The closing of the Silk Route in connection with Ottoman violence, suspicion in relation to itinerant markets (especially Jewish ones) and the Great Plague often curbed growth; more recently, the great Depression of 1929 was caused by a deliberate halt in international trade and transport, and one remembers the major role of the oil crisis in the recent global crisis. Beyond that, as you well know, the mobility and nomadism which you represent is also an essential factor of cultural progress, tolerance, inquisitiveness and democracy, and artistic inventiveness. Da Vinci, Picasso and Mozart all spent their lives travelling and would not have achieved what they did without transport. Putting mobility into question always implies questioning democracy. Freedom of movement is a basic right which only dictatorships impair. For half a century, the whole process has accelerated and since 1989, in my opinion, we have entered a phase which, for the next fifty years at least, will see a massive acceleration in transport development for the simple reason that our societies are increasingly based on market forces and democracy, neither of which would be possible without faster movement and better mobility. There can be no democracy and no trade without the transport of goods, of people and ideas.

Hence the huge potential development of your various professions, for your industry unites people, enabling them to develop both markets and democracy, to such an extent that one may consider today that mobility is no longer a mere complement to sedentary living: mobility has taken over, has become essential while the settled state has taken second place. Looking at the future of societies, everything is turning to nomadism: the main industry of tomorrow is tourism. Consumption patterns and working methods, everything moves faster, including capital and people. One may even consider that companies themselves have become nomads, and that their future lies in itinerant trade, like a circus. Indeed, one may also say that families have become nomadic, whereby people change families much faster than in the past. This nomadic behaviour is at the heart of our societies, and no longer a secondary element.

However all this, as I said at the beginning, is being revolutionised by the emergence of virtual networks which now complement physical networks, paving the way towards a virtual nomadism whereby one may do everything from home: consume, work, have fun and learn from home. Many think and forecast that the Internet society - the information age - will replace the energy society, bringing about the downfall of your professions. As for me, I rather think that the contrary will happen since this virtual nomadism, enabling people to travel without moving from home, is going to require additional and totally new transport operations since it will call for tailor-made physical movements. There can be no electronic trade without the home delivery of goods, material and even intellectual products. Although it is true that few books or records will be carried since they can be obtained on the Web, one will have to home deliver all the goods which people purchase without moving from home. In addition, it is an acknowledged fact since the invention of the telephone that the more people call each other, the more they want to see each other, and not the opposite. Cities themselves will have to adjust to all these changes, for trade itself will change into convenience shopping linked to the possibility of buying from home. One may even consider that your profession will be affected by these new technologies all the more so since they will make your vehicles into extremely intelligent media, using databases enabling their owner or the network operator to know everything about the network, social working conditions, consumption patterns, the goods carried, the vehicle's position so as to make best use of it and of the transport time. This is maybe where, in my opinion, the biggest revolution lies for you: you will become more than just carriers. I believe that the speed requirement, the need for proximity and convenience, and making the best use of time available will mean that, more and more, transport time will be used to do something more than just carrying goods.

It is already striking to see that transport logistics are turning into production sites. Today, major companies producing computers no longer manufacture these themselves - they leave the assembling to transport operators. Dell, for instance, have subcontracted UPS for the production and assembly of tailor-made computers to be delivered to their customers. In other words, road transport will no longer be restricted to transport activities: it will include production, assembly and collection as part of transport operations. The future of the network society is a deeply changing one which will also largely depend the capacity to ensure network security, in which you will certainly have a major role to play. The fact that we are now simultaneously witnessing electronic viruses and, in France, strikes by security truck guards, symbolises the new conflicts which may arise between nomadic and sedentary cultures which goes to show that, without security of the physical and virtual networks, our societies will tumble like the Tower of Babel. In other words, your profession is becoming more and more essential; it assumes new dignity and specific social and environmental responsibilities, it is becoming a vital element of rural development, sustainable development, and global development provided that it can be harmonised with all other forms of transport in a single integrated chain from door to door, from production to supply. More generally, our society is evolving into an era where everyone will be as mobile as you are, and where the values of mobility and nomadism will no longer be restricted to a few people on the road, becoming essential values to what we shall all become: travelling, producing and consuming nomads. To this end, the nomads-to-be will have to develop specific skills in the new world of Internet. A nomad welcomes visitors for he knows that he must travel, be hospitable and enjoy hospitality. Nomads travel as a group and take good care of their routes, for they know that movement means life. A nomad is happy to please, to welcome and be welcomed, and he brings others much more than the goods he carries: he enables others to escape loneliness, to fill their desire to communicate and their aspiration at fraternity.

Thank you.

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